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JPMorgan Model Says Stocks in Free Fall Mean Recession Is a Lock

The US stock market is sending a crystal clear signal on its view of the economy -- a recession is all but imminent.
That’s the verdict from a trading model created by JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists. It’s now saying the S&P 500’s 6.5% rout since the Federal Reserve turned extremely hawkish last week implies a 92% probability of US recession, up from 51% in August. Other assets are also flashing a similar warning. Pricing of base metals now carries a recession probability of 96%, up from 84% in August.
The sharp repricing in everything from stocks to Treasuries and the dollar shows markets finally accepting clarion signals from a parade of Fed officials that they are willing to accept an economic slump as the price for cooling inflation. For over a decade, the central bank was the market’s best friend, but a generational spike in prices has left the Fed solely focused on tamping them down, no matter the impact to asset prices.
“Central banks cannot blink given high inflation so weaker growth and no central bank put is not great for equities,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Plc.
For months market commentators warned that the Fed was late with its efforts to battle inflation. Now, after three straight meetings that delivered three-quarter-point rate increases and a series of warnings that more hikes were in the offing, markets have started pricing a Fed that risks going too far.
Wall Street has been in turmoil ever since, with volatility gripping everything from stocks to bonds to commodities. The cross-asset selloff has driven 10-year Treasury yields to 4%, a 2008 high, and the S&P 500 index to a 2022 low. Only credit remains fairly isolated. Measures of turbulence in bonds and currency prices jumped to the highest since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020.
“If it’s no longer confined to just one asset class, but spreading across multiple asset classes then this is the ultimate sign of contagion,” said Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc. “So far the spillover into credit is missing, which is where we see most spillover risks into equities in the coming weeks and months.”
Read more: Stock Bear Market Will Get Whole Lot Worse When Credit Cracks
Confidence that a Fed sobered by crashing markets and a stalled economy would retreat from its tightening path has evaporated, according to Lewis Grant, a senior portfolio ...

Germany, France in Climate Deal Loan Talks With South Africa

Germany and France are in talks with South Africa’s National Treasury over about 600 million euros ($578 million) to help it transition away from the use of coal.
The loans may form the first part of $8.5 billion in financing offered to the country during last November’s global climate summit. The money will go some way toward addressing the funding needs of the beleaguered national power utility, Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., as it prepares to close down some of its coal-fired plants and re-purpose them for the production of green energy.
But with just over two months to go until COP27, the next iteration of the climate summit, it’s uncertain if there will be a clear statement on progress by South Africa and the funding partners — Germany, France, the UK, the US and the European Union. The arrangement is seen as a prototype that, if successful, could see similar arrangements concluded with other coal-dependent developing nations such as Indonesia and Vietnam.
While the UK has offered debt guarantees, it is not clear what proportion of the funds will come in the form of concessional loans or grants and South Africa is yet to produce a plan spelling out how it will spend the money.
Germany is in talks with South Africa over a “promotional loan” of as much as 300 million euros that is “part of a wider engagement worth 700 million euros,” the German embassy in Johannesburg said in response to queries. France is working through Agence Francaise de Developpment, its state development bank, together with its German peer, KfW, to supply a similar loan, the French embassy in South Africa said.
Read More:
Devil in Detail of South Africa’s $8.5 Billion Climate Funding
Kerry Says South Africa Climate Deal Progress Up to Ramaphosa
France is aiming to make a public announcement at COP27 in Egypt in November, the embassy said.
Eskom referred questions to South Africa’s National Treasury.
“Various policy loans are currently under discussion, once the details have been finalized, the National Treasury will make an announcement,” the Treasury said, adding that further details will be provided at a budget update on Oct. 26.
Separate to the climate finance talks, Eskom is in negotiations with the World Bank over $476 million in funding to help it close and re-purpose its Komati coal fired plant, Andre de Ruyter, Eskom’s chief executive officer, said on Sept. 16.
That arrangement will be funded by the World Bank and will include concessional ...

Apple ditches iPhone production increase after demand falters

The electronics manufacturer is backing off on plans to increase production of its new iPhones this year after an anticipated surge in demand failed to materialise, according to people familiar with the matter.
Apple has told suppliers to pull back from efforts to increase assembly of the iPhone 14 product family by as many as 6 million units in the second half of this year, said the people, asking not to be named as the plans are not public. Instead, the company will aim to produce 90 million handsets for the period, roughly the same level as the previous year and in line with Apple’s original forecast this summer, the people said.
Demand for higher-priced iPhone 14 Pro models is stronger than for the entry-level versions, according to sources. In at least one case, an Apple supplier is shifting production capacity from lower-priced iPhones to premium models, they added.
US stock-index futures turned lower after the news, with contracts on the Nasdaq 100 falling as much as 1.3%. Key chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing fell as much as 1.8%, Apple’s biggest iPhone assembler Hon Hai Precision Industry was down as much as 2.4% and specialised producers Largan Precision and LG Innotek both slumped by more than 7%.
Apple had upgraded its sales projections in the weeks leading up to the iPhone 14 release and some of its suppliers had started making preparations for a 7% boost in orders.
An Apple spokesperson declined to comment.
China, the world’s biggest smartphone market, is in an economic slump that’s hit its domestic mobile device makers and also affected the iPhone’s sales. Purchases of the iPhone 14 series over its first three days of availability in China were 11% down on its predecessor the previous year, according to a Jefferies note on Monday.
Global demand for personal electronics has also been suppressed by surging inflation, recession fears and disruption from the war in Ukraine. The smartphone market is expected to shrink by 6.5% this year to 1.27 billion units, according to data from market tracker IDC.
“The supply constraints pulling down on the market since last year have eased and the industry has shifted to a demand-constrained market,” said Nabila Popal, research director at IDC. “High inventory in channels and low demand with no signs of immediate recovery has OEMs panicking and cutting their orders drastically for 2022.” BM/DM

Dollar rallies, stocks slump as volatility spikes: markets wrap

The dollar soared after the White House talked down the prospect of a currency agreement to weaken the greenback and equities extended declines in Asia after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers.
Benchmark stock indexes dropped more than 2% in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. European and US futures slid, extending a move that saw the S&P 500 cap its worst run since early 2020. Apple scrapped plans to increase iPhone production, further weighing on sentiment.
A gauge of the dollar set a fresh all-time high, the pound and the euro fell and the offshore yuan depreciated to the weakest on record versus the greenback as the Fed’s tightening stance damped sentiment. The yen remained near the key 145 mark versus the dollar and within sight of levels that have drawn intervention from Japan.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury touched 4% for the first time since 2010. Rates on similar dated Australia bonds reached a three-month high while Japan’s benchmark yield closed at the upper limit of the central bank’s target band on Tuesday.
Federal Reserve officials reiterated their determination to tame inflation, with James Bullard underscoring the need for tighter monetary policy.
“The fact we have such a strong increase in US yields is attracting flows into the US dollar,” said Nanette Hechler-Fayd’herbe, chief investment officer of international wealth management for Credit Suisse Group AG. “As long as monetary and fiscal policy worldwide are really not coming to strengthen their own currencies, we should be anticipating a very strong dollar.”
Leaks to a gas pipeline between Russia and Western Europe were labelled as sabotage by US and German officials, ratcheting up friction with Vladimir Putin’s regime. Russia threatened to cut off gas to Ukraine’s allies in Europe and annexed a large chunk of Ukraine in the latest signs of escalating conflict.
European gas prices rose while worries about slowing global growth weighed on other raw materials, sending a Bloomberg index of commodity prices to the lowest level since February. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to around $77 per barrel.
UK markets were again in turmoil days after the new prime minister unveiled sweeping tax cuts that threaten to add to inflationary pressures. The 30-year UK government bond yield topped 5% for the first time in two decades. BM/DM

Nigeria Lifts Rate to Record, Warning of More Hikes to Come

Nigeria’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate more than anyone had predicted, taking it over 14% for the first time since it was adopted in 2006, and signaled even higher borrowing costs are possible if inflation isn’t reined in.
The monetary policy committee increased the rate to 15.5% from 14%, Governor Godwin Emefiele said Tuesday in Abuja. Most economists in a Bloomberg survey expected a smaller hike and a minority saw no change.
The MPC also increased the cash reserve ratio, the amount of money lenders have to keep at the central bank, to 32.5% from 27.5%. That’s an indirect form of tightening that aims to mop up liquidity.
“As long as inflation is trending upwards, we cannot assure anybody that we will not raise rates,” he said.
The MPC’s decision to hike was unanimous, with 10 of 12 members that attended the meeting voting to raise by 150 basis points, one by a full percentage point and one by half a percentage point.
Africa’s largest economy was a late mover globally in increasing rates in an effort to stamp out inflation and stem capital outflows. It’s now raised borrowing costs by 400 basis points, making it one of four central banks on the continent that have hiked by 300 basis points or more this year.
A hike will help consolidate the impact of the last two policy rate hikes, which are already reflected in the slowing growth rate of money supply in the economy, Emefiele said. Money supply in August increased 20.8% from a year earlier, compared with 21.5% a month prior The rate increase will also “slow capital outflows and likely attract capital inflows and appreciate in the naira currency,” he said.
Annual inflation in Africa’s most populous country, where four in 10 people live below the poverty line, rose to a fresh 17-year high of 20.5% in August and is at more than double the ceiling of the central bank’s target band.
A slump in the value of the currency against the dollar to record lows on both the official and parallel market has been fanning inflation. It’s also come under pressure from higher global commodity prices due to choked supply chains caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine and security issues in the nation’s food-producing regions.
Higher borrowing costs are likely to draw criticism from some politicians as campaigning begins Wednesday for next year’s presidential elections.
The naira declined 1.06%, to 435.89 per dollar by 4:26 ...

Nord Stream Hit Adds to Europe’s Economic Woes in 2009 Echo

The economic damage from the shutdown of Russian gas flows is piling up fast in Europe and risks eventually eclipsing the impact of the global financial crisis.
With a continent-wide recession now seemingly inevitable, a harsh winter is coming for chemical producers, steel plants and car manufacturers starved of essential raw materials who’ve joined households in sounding the alarm over rocketing energy bills. The suspected sabotage this of Germany’s main pipeline for gas from Russia underlined that Europe will have to survive without any significant Russian flows.
Building on a model of the European energy market and economy, the Bloomberg Economics base case is now a 1% drop in gross domestic product, with the downturn starting in the fourth quarter. If the coming months turn especially icy and the 27 members of the European Union fail to efficiently share scarce fuel supplies, the contraction could be as much as 5%.
That’s about as deep as the recession of 2009. And even if that fate is avoided, the euro-area economy is still on track to spend 2023 suffering its third biggest contraction since World War II — with Germany among those suffering the most.
“Europe is very clearly heading into what could be a fairly deep recession,” said Maurice Obstfeld, a former chief economist at the IMF who’s now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
The bleak outlook already means that, seven months on from the outbreak of war in Ukraine, governments are shoveling hundreds of billions of euros to families at the same time as they bail out companies and talk of curbs on energy-usage. And those rescue efforts may still fall short.
Adding to the pressure on companies and consumers, the European Central Bank is also squeezing the economy as its new laser-like focus on surging inflation drives the fastest hiking of interest rates in its history. ECB President Christine Lagarde said Monday that she expects policy makers to lift borrowing costs at the next several meetings. Traders are already pricing in a jumbo 75 basis-point hike at the next monetary policy meeting on Oct. 27.
“The outlook is darkening,” Lagarde told EU lawmakers in Brussels. “We expect activity to slow substantially in the coming quarters.”
Some energy-industry watchers warn of a lasting crisis that potentially proves bigger than the oil-supply crunches of the 1970s. Indeed, the final impact of the shortages could be even worse than economic models can capture, ...

TikTok deal remains elusive as Biden administration works to solve data concerns

The Biden administration and TikTok are working on an agreement that would let the video-sharing site keep operating in the US, but negotiations have stalled over concerns that the company’s Chinese ownership poses a national security threat, people with knowledge of the matter said.
Once reached, the agreement would allow the platform to continue operating in the US, though it would place additional restrictions on how data from US users is stored, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing a national security matter.
The app has been under scrutiny by US officials since 2019, when the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US – or Cfius – began reviewing a merger between the app’s parent company ByteDance and
The deal still needs to be cleared by some agencies that make up the committee, including the Justice Department, the people said. The department’s No 2 official, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, is concerned the agreement doesn’t go far enough to keep the data of US users safe from Chinese actors, one of the people said.
The news about the pending agreement was reported earlier by the New York Times.
A spokesperson for the Treasury Department said Cfius is committed to taking all actions within its authority to safeguard national security, but doesn’t comment on transactions it may be reviewing.
“We will not comment on the specifics of confidential discussions with the US government, but we are confident that we are on a path to fully satisfy all reasonable US national security concerns,” a TikTok spokesperson said.
Regulators and lawmakers have long feared that Chinese authorities could access US user data via TikTok. These anxieties were revived after a report by BuzzFeed in June that US user data had been repeatedly accessed from China.
The same day as the BuzzFeed story, TikTok said it was routing all US user traffic through Oracle Corp’s cloud, and that the database giant is auditing its algorithms. TikTok and Oracle are expected to continue working together on a storage setup that satisfies US national security concerns, according to a person familiar with the process.
While TikTok’s one billion active users makes it smaller than some of its social media peers, it’s growing quickly – particularly among young people. In June, the app was the second-most-likely used app among Gen Z users, trailing behind Instagram in the top spot, according to analysis from It’s also swiftly building its ad business, with ...

Dollar rally pauses, stocks mixed in relative calm: markets wrap

Asian markets traded on a cautious note on Tuesday after another selloff in US stocks, soaring bond yields and volatile currency markets as investors brace for a heightened risk of global recession.
A gauge of the region’s equities held a slight gain as shares edged higher in Japan and Australia and were mixed in Hong Kong and China. US equity contracts rose after the S&P 500 closed at its lowest since 2020 and the Cboe Volatility Index spiked past 30, a level it hasn’t closed above since June.
Bonds remained under pressure in Australia and Japan, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield held near 3.9% – a level last seen in 2010.
The Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled bond buying operation across a wide range of maturities after the country’s 20-year bond yields rose to the highest level since 2015 as global debt markets come under pressure from expectations for further monetary tightening.
The dollar gauge inched back from a record high on Monday, when Federal Reserve officials repeated hawkish comments on policy. Asian currencies including the yen and yuan strengthened slightly while staying around levels that have caused concern from authorities in Japan and China.
BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Monday that Japan’s intervention in the currency market was appropriate given recent volatility in the yen. Japan spent about 3 trillion yen ($21 billion) on its action, Nikkei reported.
Traders are also looking for more pushback from China’s central bank as the yuan approaches the lowest level in 14 years.
“The yuan I think is getting close to its bottom,” Daniel Gerard, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets, said on Bloomberg Television. “They’ve got to manage the trading basket.”
The pound made a small advance following its drop to a record low Monday. The Bank of England said it may not act before November to stem a rout, leaving traders wary of the risk that the currency could drop to parity with the dollar.
The turmoil in markets shows little sign of turning Fed officials away from hawkish rhetoric. Boston Fed president Susan Collins and her Cleveland counterpart Loretta Mester said additional tightening is needed to rein in stubbornly high inflation and Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic also said the central bank still has a ways to go to control inflation.
“The market is pricing in some Fed increases, but we’re a bit worried that it might not be pricing in everything,” Laila Pence, president ...

Stocks Fall; Pound Drops as BOE Fails to Reassure: Markets Wrap

US stocks dropped, cutting short a cautious rebound led by technology shares, as hawkish central banks across the globe continued to subdue sentiment. The pound extended its drop after the Bank of England says it may not act before November to stem a rout that took the sterling to a record low.
The S&P 500 fell and the Nasdaq 100 pared gains after both equity gauges plunged last week. US Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 10-year rate hovering around 3.77%. The pound was near $1.07.
Markets are on the edge after a selloff of risk assets deepened last week as the UK’s plan to lift its economy fueled fears that heightened inflation would push rates higher and ignite a global recession. UK markets were in focus on Monday as the pound remained volatile after crashing to an all-time low, with the Bank of England’s hawkish comments doing little to reassure traders.
“From a contrarian perspective, such widespread pessimism is creating buying opportunities,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, wrote in a note. “Admittedly, though, it is getting harder to be optimistic about the economy. It is also getting harder to be bullish on stocks when the Fed is turning more hawkish on monetary policy.”
On Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said additional tightening is needed to rein in stubbornly high inflation and cautioned the process will require some job losses.
US markets will continue to remain challenged by uncertainty until companies start to report their third-quarter earnings next month, which will provide greater detail on the health of corporate revenues and profit, wrote John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer.
Investors will also be keeping an eye on the economic data stream for hints of prices cooling, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley, wrote in a note.
“What the market will need to see now to get out of the current conundrum is for inflation inputs to start coming down noticeably,” said Hogan. “We will get a read on the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator this Thursday when the second quarter core PCE is reported. Along with that investors will keep a close eye on the economic data stream for hints of prices paid coming down.”
Trading this week will be punctuated by a number of economic reports including US initial jobless claims and gross-domestic-product data, along with PMI figures from China. Choppiness in price moves is likely with a steady ...

Traders Who ‘Just Want to Survive’ Sit on $5 Trillion Cash Pile

From stocks to bonds, credit to crypto, money managers looking for somewhere to hide from the Federal Reserve induced storm battering virtually every asset class are finding solace in a long reviled corner of the market: cash.
Investors have $4.6 trillion stashed in US money-market mutual funds, while ultra-short bond funds currently hold about $150 billion. And the pile is growing. Cash saw inflows of $30 billion in the week through Sept. 21, according to figures from EPFR Global. Where once that stash yielded practically nothing, the vast bulk now earns upwards of 2%, with pockets paying 3%, 4% or more.
The suddenly respectable payout is one of the reasons traders have been in little rush to deploy their capital into riskier assets, even with prices at multiyear lows. The other is that as the Fed continues to push interest rates higher to tame inflation, market participants are finally coming to the realization that the central bank is unlikely to abandon its hawkish policy tilt anytime soon, leaving cash as the asset of choice to ride out the turmoil.
“I don’t think it’s time to be a hero,” said Barbara Ann Bernard, founder of hedge fund Wincrest Capital. “The reason I have as much cash as I do is because I just want to survive and end the year up. This is going to be a tricky environment for a while.”
Two to four percent may not seem like much at first glance, especially with inflation running north of 8%.
But in a world where bonds are in a bear market, global stocks are at the lowest since 2020, and the Fed has made clear it’s willing to slam the brakes on the US economy to get rising prices under control, those few percentage points of positive return are becoming increasingly appealing.
Read more: UK Market Selloff Slams Gilts, Pound, Piling Pressure on BOE
That’s especially true given that only a year ago, the seven-day yield on taxable money funds tracked by Crane Data averaged just 0.02%.
“Most market participants see for now that hey, cash is yielding 4%, why not just sit in cash while the macro environment clarifies a little bit,” said Anwiti Bahuguna, head of multi-asset strategy at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “What’s not known is how long the Fed will keep at it. Until we have that clarity, folks don’t want to stick their neck out.”
Bahuguna said she’s gradually adding stocks and bonds after the ...

Falling Pound Puts More Pressure on Squeezed British Businesses

The tumbling pound is forcing British businesses to raise prices, amplifying pressure from surging energy bills, higher raw material costs and a tight labor market.
Importers are among the worst-hit. Almost half of the food on supermarket shelves comes from abroad, according to the British Retail Consortium, and it could become more expensive to source because of the currency’s decline. It’s even worse for non-food sectors, where imported goods sometimes make up an even greater portion of sales.
“Any rapid drop in the pound, while helping exporters, will be alarming for all businesses because of the sense of instability it creates,” said Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors.
The pound’s plunge to an all-time low came in the wake of the new government’s tax-cutting budget, which is intended to drive growth. Yet further price increases could pressure households and businesses already squeezed by high inflation and spiking borrowing costs.
For UK-based companies, the effects are mixed. Travel and tourism businesses could get a boost from a weaker pound, with Americans flocking to Britain after two years of Covid-related restrictions.
Higher Rates
For multinational firms based in the UK, a weaker pound also means earnings from overseas operations translate into more of the British currency.
Yet any positive effect may be offset by higher lending costs if the Bank of England raises interest rates further to try to stem the slide. The BOE said Monday that it’ll assess sterling’s drop at its next scheduled meeting and won’t hesitate to change rates as much as needed.
The risk of debt defaults for British supermarkets surged as investors reacted to the market swings, with insurance on bonds of Asda Group Ltd. and Iceland Foods Ltd. — used to protect investors against non-payment — jumped to signal a 52% and 76% chance of a default within five years respectively.
EasyJet Plc said the weaker pound will inflate its costs, though the UK airline’s hedging positions on jet fuel and currency fluctuations should provide some protection.
For smaller businesses based in the UK that rely on imports, the currency’s plunge could be more problematic.
“It’s a nightmare,” said Roy Kendall, managing director at Top of the Range, a Yorkshire-based distributor of sportswear, including to the military, speaking about spiking import costs across the board.
His business is partly insulated from the sharp devaluation thanks to a years-long strategy of securing more of the stock in advance. Still, Kendall sees the falling pound affecting cash ...

Dollar rallies, stocks drop in rocky start to week: markets wrap

The dollar rallied, bond yields climbed and Asian shares slid amid unrelenting pressure on risk-sensitive assets as fears of faster inflation and global recession continued to rise.
The pound led declines among major currencies on Monday, slumping to a record low as the UK Chancellor vowed to press on with tax cuts that threaten to stoke inflation. The euro fell as investors weighed the prospects of Italy under the most right-wing government since World War 2.
Shares dropped in Japan and Australia while an index of global stocks plumbed new lows for the year. US and European stock futures fell. Hong Kong equities fluctuated.
“We’re in a period of global gloom, with pessimism blanketing different countries for different reasons,” said Ed Yardeni, president of his eponymous research firm, who warned of growing storm clouds for the US economy. “The latest data jibe with our growth recession scenario, but the risks of a full-blown recession are obviously increasing,” he wrote in a note Monday.
A dollar gauge rose to a record high. The yen slid, while remaining short of the point last week that drew intervention from Japanese authorities.
The yuan slid as China set its reference for the currency weaker than 7 per dollar for the first time in two years, while increasing the risk reserve requirement on foreign exchange sales.
The depreciation of the Korean won also continued, prompting the central bank to warn of its impact in exacerbating inflationary pressures.
“It’s a king US dollar – we’ve been seeing currencies across Asia come under pressure,” Sian Fenner, senior Asia economist for Oxford Economics, said on Bloomberg TV. “It’s adding to inflationary pressures and more central banks raising rates more than we have historically seen.”
Treasury yields remain elevated, with the two-year US rate climbing for 13 consecutive days through Friday in the longest such streak since at least 1976. Australia’s sovereign bond yields advanced, led by the policy-sensitive three-year note.
The Bank of Japan boosted its bond purchase amounts at its regular operation as the benchmark 10-year yield rebounded toward the upper end of the central bank’s tolerated trading range.
Trading this week will be punctuated by a number of economic reports including US initial jobless claims and gross-domestic-product data, along with PMI figures from China. Choppiness in price moves is likely with a steady stream of Federal Reserve officials speaking through the week.
Underscoring the concern in markets, the Cboe Volatility Index, which serves as a “fear gauge” ...

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