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01
DEC
11pm

EU closes in on $60 cap for Russian oil as Poles hold out for tougher action

The European Union is closing in on a deal to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel, their latest attempt to clinch an agreement before a Monday deadline, according to people familiar with the matter.
But Poland continues to push to harden the sanctions package before signing off on the price cap, and talks will continue tomorrow, the people said. Warsaw wants new sanctions linked to the cap plan.
EU talks have been dragging on since last week as Poland and the Baltic nations demanded measures that put more pressure on Moscow’s revenues. Even after their efforts, the cap that looks set to be agreed is above the prices most Russian crude already trades at.
As a deal looks within reach, the bloc is set to create a mechanism that would allow for revisions of the price every two months, according to a draft document. There’s also a plan to make sure any resetting of the cap should leave it at least 5% below average market rates.
One official from a coalition country said late on Thursday that each review of the cap price will take into consideration a variety of factors, including changes to market prices, as well as fiscal and economic conditions inside Russia.
The person added that they were encouraged that the price cap project had come this far. At its outset, the person said, the plan was judged to have little chance of success. They said the approach of the cap’s imposition had already forced Russia to discount its prices on crude sales more than the coalition had anticipated.
It’s still not clear how the Kremlin will react to the $60 cap, but Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicated on Thursday that he thought the price cap level was irrelevant. Given the cap is above market rates, Moscow may be able to claim it can just keep selling oil as usual.
The intention of the price cap – first proposed by the US amid concern EU sanctions were too strict – is to keep Russian oil flowing to avoid a global price surge, while also limiting Moscow’s revenue. For the price cap plan to accomplish its goal, the level has to be attractive enough to the Kremlin.
The risk for oil markets is that if the cap is seen as too low, Moscow may make good on a threat to shut down production – sending global crude prices higher.
The country’s flagship ...
01
DEC
11pm

Asia stocks set for mixed open with jobs in focus: markets wrap

Stocks fell in Asia after US equities struggled for direction, with traders awaiting a jobs report later on Friday for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.
A gauge of Asian equities dropped, led by Japan, where the yen’s five-day rally increased downward pressure on stocks. A Bank of Japan board member suggesting the need for a policy assessment added to negative sentiment.
Futures contracts for the S&P 500 slid after the index edged lower during the US session. It rallied earlier this week on Fed chair Jerome Powell’s signals of a downshift in the pace of hikes.
Bets on where the central bank rate will peak have now dropped below 4.9%, according to swap markets. The current benchmark sits in a range between 3.75% and 4%.
Fed Bank of New York president John Williams said further hikes are needed to curb inflation. Concern that such tightening raises the odds of a recession became more pronounced after data showing American manufacturing contracted in November for the first time since May 2020.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index steadied after sinking to its lowest since June.
Australian and New Zealand government bond yields slid, following the lead from Treasuries on Thursday, when their rally gathered steam amid a pullback in expectations for Fed tightening. The 10-year US benchmark yield rose slightly to 3.54% during Asian trading.
The remarkably resilient US jobs market is beginning to cool, but Friday’s employment report may fall short of the turning point Fed officials are seeking in their battle to beat back inflation.
Still, Sarah Ponczek, financial adviser at UBS Private Wealth Management, said the jobs figures and other data may start to show a slowing trend in the economy.
“There have been slight hints that the interest-rate hike cycle that we have seen is starting to filter through the economy,” she said on Bloomberg Radio.
In South Africa, the political turmoil risks sending the financial market into deeper rout, with the rand coming off its worst one-day loss since May and yields on the 10-year sovereign bond rising most since 2015.
Elsewhere, oil was set for a weekly gain with China further easing Covid restrictions and the US considering a pause in sales from its strategic reserves. Gold slid. BM/DM
01
DEC
11pm

Vulnerable Britons unable to afford energy may unplug from grid

More than 2 million of Britain’s most vulnerable households, facing the prospect of out-of-reach prices for gas and electricity, could shiver in silence this winter by disconnecting from the grid without their suppliers knowing, the chief executive of one utility warned.
As a result, there’s likely to be an increase in the number of winter illnesses and deaths among those using traditional prepayment meters, which have no digital connectivity and resemble those used in the 1970s, said Bill Bullen, founder of Utilita Energy. He submitted a “red flag” report to the UK government calling on companies to take several curative measures, including swapping old equipment for smart meters so suppliers can detect when someone has unplugged.
“Unless the customer has refused a smart meter, there’s no excuse for legacy meters to exist today,” Bullen said after his company surveyed 750 pay-as-you-go households. “Having no choice but to sit at home without heating or light is unacceptable, and our government and the regulator must intervene immediately to stop self-disconnections.”
The UK is gripped by the worst energy crisis in decades after Russia squeezed exports of natural gas to Europe in retaliation for war-related sanctions, propelling wholesale prices to records. The British government is spending about £16 billion to subsidize household bills – including those of prepayment customers – as temperatures plummet and nations compete for ever-tighter supplies.
The National Energy Action charity says 8.4 million people will fall into fuel poverty starting in April, when new tariffs kick in.
“We’re helping people already making desperate choices to keep bills down, like turning the heating off despite having a health condition,” said Gillian Cooper, head of energy policy for the Citizens Advice consumer group.
About 4.5 million households nationwide use prepayment meters, Utilita said. Designed to help users avoid racking up bills they can’t afford, the meters require people to pay for energy in advance – at the post office or a shop, for example. About half of those customers have smart meters.
Once that credit runs out, lights go off and heaters shut down. For the half without smart meters, there’s no way for suppliers to know unless they tell them.
Bullen’s proposed solutions include eliminating any extra charges associated with pay-as-you-go accounts, “busting” the myth that switching to smart meters leads to more debt and erasing the stigma of poverty often associated with prepaid accounts. His company serves about 1.4 million customers.
So far, above-average temperatures have been a ...
01
DEC
11pm

South Africa trails emerging-market peers as Ramaphosa faces calls to resign

Five years ago, Cyril Ramaphosa’s ascent to power fuelled a euphoric rally in South Africa’s assets that coined a new word: Ramaphoria. On Thursday, a financial scandal threatened to end it all in a rout.
The nation’s currency posted its worst one-day loss since May while the government’s borrowing costs surged the most since 2015, as the president considers resigning over potential breaches of the constitution related to the theft of $580,000 stashed at a game farm he owns. Options traders bet on the wildest currency volatility in two years, and the cost to hedge against a sovereign default jumped the most in the same period.
The reversal marks a stark contrast to the market reaction between November 2017 and February 2018 when Ramaphosa emerged as the replacement for the scandal-ridden tenure of Jacob Zuma. His reform agenda and clean image helped fuel a 27% rally in the rand in that period.
Money managers now say he failed to deliver the policy changes required to ignite growth in the country, considered a bellwether for emerging markets. Rampant unemployment at about 33% and a continued mess in the electricity sector have lowered markets’ confidence in him, with the latest political crisis pushing them over the edge.
“The market dreads political instability and often prefers to go with the devil they know than the devil they don’t,” said Cristian Maggio, the head of portfolio and ESG Strategy at TD Securities in London. “But Ramaphosa’s reform agenda has been underwhelming to say the least. Doubts will remain as to whether another candidate can kick-start that process, but we surely know that Ramaphosa is unlikely to deliver what is needed.”
The leadership crisis sent the rand as much as 4.2% lower to 17.9596 per dollar, at one point set for the biggest one-day loss since November 2016. The currency trimmed some of those losses to end the session down 2.6% to a three-week low at 17.6574.
The rand held losses as government spokesman Vincent Mgwenya said in a televised briefing a response by the president is “imminent” without giving timing details for the address.
Some more market reaction:
The 10-year sovereign rand-bond yield rose 74 basis points to 11.54%.
The yield on 10-year dollar bonds climbed about 36 basis points to 7.36%.
One-week implied volatility on the currency, based on options prices, soared 5 percentage points to more than 21%.
Credit default swaps, used to hedge against the risk of default by South Africa in ...
01
DEC
10am

South Africa Trails Emerging-Market Peers as Ramaphosa Faces Calls to Resign

Five years ago, Cyril Ramaphosa’s ascent to power fueled a euphoric rally in South Africa’s assets that coined a new word: Ramaphoria. On Thursday, a financial scandal threatened to end it all in a rout.
The nation’s currency tumbled toward its worst decline in six years and the government’s borrowing costs surged the most since 2015 as the president considered resigning over potential breaches of the constitution related to the theft of $580,000 stashed at a game farm he owns. Options traders bet on the wildest currency volatility in two years, and the cost to hedge against a sovereign default jumped the most in the same period.
Ramaphosa Weighs Resigning Over Panel’s Report on Farm Scandal
The reversal marks a stark contrast to the market reaction between November 2017 and February 2018 when Ramaphosa emerged as the replacement for the scandal-ridden tenure of Jacob Zuma. His reform agenda and clean image helped fuel a 27% rally in the rand in that period.
Money managers now say he failed to deliver the policy changes required to ignite growth in the country, considered a bellwether for emerging markets. Rampant unemployment at about 33% and a continued mess in the electricity sector have lowered markets’ confidence in him, with the latest political crisis pushing them over the edge.
“The market dreads political instability and often prefers to go with the devil they know than the devil they don’t,” said Cristian Maggio, the head of portfolio and ESG Strategy at TD Securities in London. “But Ramaphosa’s reform agenda has been underwhelming to say the least. Doubts will remain as to whether another candidate can kick-start that process, but we surely know that Ramaphosa is unlikely to deliver what is needed.”
Ramaphosa will address the nation on Thursday night, News24, a Johannesburg-based news website, reported on its Twitter account. The leadership crisis sent the rand as much as 4.2% lower to 17.9596 per dollar, the biggest one-day loss since November 2016 on a closing basis.
Some more market reaction:
The 10-year sovereign rand-bond yield rose as much as 84 basis points to 11.64%.
The 10-year dollar-bond yield climbed 51 basis points to 7.46%.
One-week implied volatility on the currency, based on options prices, soared 5 percentage points to almost 21%.
Credit default swaps, used to hedge against the risk of default by South Africa in the next five years, increased 30 basis points to 274.
An index of bank shares slumped as much as 7.7%, the most ...
01
DEC
10am

Stocks Drop After Big Rally on Weak Factory Data: Markets Wrap

Stocks erased gains after data showed US manufacturing contracted in November for the first time since May 2020, tempering optimism with a report that highlighted signs inflation is abating.
The S&P 500 pushed lower after Wednesday’s big rally, while Salesforce Inc. weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the software company gave an outlook that reflects a weaker economy. The greenback slumped to the lowest level since August, while two-year US yields — which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves — were flat.
The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of factory activity slid to 49 from 50.2 in the prior month. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 49.7. Meantime, a key gauge of US consumer prices posted the second-smallest increase this year while spending accelerated.
“Bottom line, seeing inflation roll over and the soon to be peak in Fed rate hikes was the first mountain to climb for both the economy and markets in 2022,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. “The next mountain needing to be conquered, and will be the 2023 focus I believe, is the economic consequences to such a sharp rise in interest rates, the higher cost of capital that both businesses and households have to deal with and the recession it creates.”
Read: Post-Powell Stocks Rally Fueled by Frenzy in Short-Dated Options
Worries about how far central bankers will go to rein in inflation have kept investors on edge, and equities volatile. Markets are still pricing in rate hikes from the Fed until mid-2023, although Jerome Powell’s lack of a sharp-edged message sent Wall Street rallying Wednesday on optimism officials will back off from tightening too aggressively.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said sharp declines await US stocks in the first half of 2023 against the backdrop of a mild recession and Fed rate hikes. The prediction adds to calls from strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG that American equities are in for a wild ride next year.
“Despite the recent rebound in equities, we do not think the macroeconomic conditions for a sustained market rally are yet in place,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We maintain our view that the Fed will hike rates by 50bps in December and another 50bps in 1Q23, bringing the hiking cycle to an end, however the cumulative impact of prior ...
01
DEC
10am

Sam Bankman-Fried Says He Has ‘Close to Nothing’ Left After $26 Billion Wipeout

Sam Bankman-Fried, who at one point was worth $26 billion, claims he now has “close to nothing.”
The fallen crypto mogul held all his assets in his now-bankrupt FTX exchange and sister trading house Alameda Research, he said in a video interview with columnist Andrew Ross Sorkin at the New York Times DealBook Summit on Wednesday.
Bankman-Fried, 30, who remains in the Bahamas, said he’s left with just one working credit card linked to a bank account with $100,000. He added that he’s disclosing everything and has no hidden funds.
Also read: Bankman-Fried Denies Trying to Commit Fraud at Collapsed FTX
Once considered the crypto industry’s wunderkind, Bankman-Fried is now at the center of legal and regulatory probes into whether his empire mishandled customer funds. The restructuring expert who took over FTX in bankruptcy, John J. Ray III, has said it was the worst failure of corporate controls he’d ever seen.
In a sworn declaration last month, Ray said advisers told financial institutions to freeze withdrawals and reject any instructions from Bankman-Fried. The documents also indicated that Alameda had lent $1 billion to Bankman-Fried and that FTX Group funds were used to buy homes and other personal items for employees.
Bankman-Fried was asked about the company’s real estate purchases, including reports that his parents were provided with a home.
“I don’t know the details of the house for my parents — I know it was not intended to be their long-term property, it was intended to be the company’s property,” he said. Other purchases were made so employees who relocated to the Bahamas “had an easy way to find a comfortable life that they’d be willing to move and help build out the product.”
Bankman-Fried became one of the world’s wealthiest people in just a few years after starting Alameda and then FTX, which had more than 1 million customers globally before its collapse. He won backing for his exchange from hedge funds and venture capitalists, while Alameda posted trading profits that he said he would use to sway politics and support nonprofits that align with his “effective altruism” philosophy.
Then it all came crashing down. As he told it, his swift demise began in early November when crypto news site CoinDesk reported on Alameda’s balance sheet, showing that a token issued by FTX, FTT, made up about a quarter of the trading house’s $14.6 billion in assets.
In just about a week, his empire spiraled into bankruptcy, wiping out ...
30
NOV
10pm

Stocks rally on Powell, China Covid; dollar slides: markets wrap

Stocks extended gains in Asia after China appeared to soften is Covid stance and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signalled a slowdown in the pace of interest-rate hikes.
The dollar fell against most of its G10 counterparts, with the yen speeding to a three-month high. Treasury yields stabilised after large declines on Powell’s comments.
US equity futures edged higher, contracts for Europe surged and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index jumped as much as 3.7%, following a 29% gain in November. The S&P 500 soared on Wednesday to end the month at the highest level since mid-September, led by a rally led by tech stocks.
Sentiment in Asia got an extra China’s top official in charge of the fight against the coronavirus. Vice Premier Sun Chunlan said the country’s efforts to combat the virus are entering a new phase with the omicron variant weakening and more Chinese getting vaccinated.
Powell’s remarks affirmed expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 50 basis points this month in a departure from a run of four 75 basis point hikes. Pricing in the swaps market indicates the Fed funds rate will peak below 5% in May. Prior to Powell’s comments, the market anticipated a peak above that level occurring in June.
Equities were buoyed by Powell’s indication that the Fed would balance tackling inflation with supporting the economy, said Krishna Guha, head of central bank strategy for Evercore ISI.
“Most importantly for risk assets, Powell’s remarks embraced the return of some two-sided risk management. That is a big deal for equities and means an outsized move in stocks relative to the rates market is justified,” he said.
Optimism for tech stocks boosted US-listed blue chips on Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which includes internet giants Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu.
Traders also scoured several economic reports, with key gauges of US activity painting a mixed third-quarter picture. Job openings fell in October – a hopeful sign for the Fed as it seeks to curb demand.
The figures precede Friday’s jobs report, which is currently forecast to show employers added 200,000 workers to payrolls in November. Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to hold at 3.7%, and for average hourly earnings to moderate.
Elsewhere in markets, oil fluctuated after three days of gains on China’s Covid developments and data showed a steep drop in US inventories.
Gold edged higher in Asia – following a 1% advance on Wednesday. BM/DM
30
NOV
10pm

China official behind strict Covid lockdowns softens stance

China’s top official in charge of the fight against Covid-19 said the country’s efforts to combat the virus are entering a new phase with the omicron variant weakening and more Chinese getting vaccinated, a fresh sign that Beijing may be seeking to amend its strategy.
“As the omicron variant becomes less pathogenic, more people get vaccinated and our experience in Covid prevention accumulates, our fight against the pandemic is at a new stage and it comes with new tasks,” outgoing Vice Premier Sun Chunlan said at a meeting with the National Health Commission and health experts in Beijing on Wednesday.
She didn’t use the term “dynamic Covid-Zero” – used to describe China’s quest to quash outbreaks and eliminate Covid – based on the statement issued after the meeting. At a briefing on Tuesday, officials from bodies including the National Health Commission didn’t use the term either, a departure from previous briefings, and instead encouraged the elderly to get vaccinated.
Adding to the signs, state-backed tabloid Global Times ran an article Thursday morning citing Chinese experts that people don’t need to panic over the Omicron variant, as it’s much less deadly.
The country is discussing rolling out a fourth Covid shot, people familiar with the plans told Bloomberg News on Wednesday, a sign pressure to reopen is leading to moves for change.
Sun’s remarks appear to be the first official, public acknowledgment in China that the virus is no longer as severe, and come amid other shifts in rhetoric that signal the country is finally looking at moving away from the Covid-Zero stance that’s slammed its economy, left it globally isolated and disrupted people’s lives.
Investors responded with optimism, as China’s currency and stocks listed in the US jumped. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged nearly 10% at the close in New York, the most since March 16, taking the benchmark’s monthly gain to a record 42% in November. The offshore yuan climbed as much as 1.33% to 7.0457 per dollar.
Charged with China’s healthcare portfolio, Sun has become synonymous with the country’s hardline pandemic approach. If she appeared in a city experiencing an outbreak, it was typically a sign stricter measures like broad lockdowns were coming, a reputation that earned Sun the nickname the “Old Lady of Lockdown” on Chinese social media.
‘Very significant’ comments
She was sent into Wuhan when the virus first emerged, making her pivotal to the strategy that was then deployed nationwide, and kept ...
30
NOV
10pm

Bankman-Fried denies trying to commit fraud at fallen FTX empire

Mystery continues to shroud the missing billions at bankrupt crypto exchange FTX after its disgraced founder Sam Bankman-Fried denied trying to perpetrate a fraud while admitting to grievous managerial errors.
In his first major public appearance following the implosion of FTX and sister trading house Alameda Research on 11 November, Bankman-Fried said he “screwed up” at the helm of the exchange and should have focused more on risk management, customer protection and links between FTX and Alameda.
“I made a lot of mistakes,” the 30-year-old said on Wednesday by video link at the New York Times DealBook Summit. “There are things I would give anything to be able to do over again. I didn’t ever try to commit fraud on anyone.”
Bankman-Fried’s participation was controversial given there are outstanding questions about how Bahamas-based FTX ended up with an $8-billion hole in its balance sheet and whether it mishandled customer funds. Reports that FTX lent client money to Alameda for risky trades have stoked such concerns.
Interviewed by New York Times columnist Andrew Ross Sorkin, who said Bankman-Fried was joining from the Bahamas, the fallen crypto mogul didn’t give a straight answer about whether he had at times lied.
Bankman-Fried told the summit that he “didn’t knowingly commingle funds”. At the same time, he said that FTX and Alameda were “substantially more” linked than intended and that he failed to pay attention to the trading house’s “too large” margin position.
He said he wasn’t running Alameda and added that he was “nervous about a conflict of interest”. No person was in charge of position risk at FTX, he said, describing the lack of oversight as a mistake.
Out of control
The comments shed little light on the question of where client funds ended up as Bankman-Fried stuck to a hard-to-parse account of how Alameda ran up a massive margin position on the exchange.
The restructuring expert who took over the firm in bankruptcy, John J Ray III, has painted a picture of FTX as a mismanaged, largely out-of-control company bathed in conflicts and lacking basic accounting practices, calling it the worst failure of corporate controls he’d ever seen.
Bankman-Fried faces a complex web of lawsuits and regulatory probes into alleged wrongdoing. Some observers speculate his public comments could be used against him in litigation.
The spotlight has also fallen on an apparent company culture of working and playing hard. Bankman-Fried said there were no wild parties and that he saw no illegal ...
30
NOV
10am

US Job Openings Fall to 10.3 Million in Hopeful Sign for Fed

US job openings fell in October, reversing a surprise jump in the prior month, in a hopeful sign for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to curb demand across the economy.
The number of available positions decreased to 10.3 million in October from 10.7 million a month earlier, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Wednesday. The figure was roughly in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The report suggests demand for workers, while still robust, is moderating amid a darkening economic outlook and rising interest rates. Even so, many employers are still struggling to fill open positions. Labor-force participation is stuck below pre-pandemic levels, and businesses continue to raise wages to attract and retain workers.
The persistent mismatch in supply and demand could continue for quite some time, which has led many economists to predict businesses will hoard employees even as consumer spending wanes.
Read more: There’s a Job-Market Riddle at the Heart of the Coming Recession
Economic uncertainty paired with recent layoff announcements at several large companies also appeared to have made Americans more hesitant to leave their current roles. The quits rate, a measure of voluntary job leavers as a share of total employment, dropped to 2.6%, the lowest since May 2021. Some 4 million Americans quit their jobs in October.
Some of the largest decreases in vacancies were in state and local government, excluding education; nondurable goods manufacturing and federal government. Openings increased in other services and finance and insurance.
Hires eased slightly to 6 million, while layoffs edged up.
The ratio of openings to unemployed people dropped to 1.7 in October, matching the lowest in a year. That compares with roughly 1.9 in September.
Fed officials watch that ratio closely and have pointed to the elevated number of job openings as a reason to why the central bank may be able to cool the labor market — and therefore inflation — without an ensuing surge in unemployment. Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to discuss the labor market and broader economic outlook later Wednesday.
Read more: Powell to Set Stage for Slowing Fed Rate Hikes Amid Hawkish Tone
Further Details
Openings and hiring in construction declined
While vacancies in manufacturing dropped, hiring picked up
In professional and business services, openings dropped to the lowest in more than a year as hiring retreated
Hires and openings rose in accommodation and food services
The data precede Friday’s monthly jobs report, which is currently forecast ...
30
NOV
10am

Chinese Stocks Listed in US Add $177 Billion in Historic Month

Chinese stocks listed in the US climbed for a third day, adding to a record rally this month fuelled by optimism over reopening bets as some parts of the country loosened lockdown restrictions.
The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index gained 6% Wednesday, putting the benchmark on pace for a 37% surge this month that has added about $177 billion in market value. Bilibili Inc., JD.com Inc. and Pinduoduo Inc. were among the biggest gainers in November, advancing at least 45% each.
November’s rally is a dramatic turnaround from October’s 25% plunge when fresh lockdowns started being implemented in China and the Communist Party Congress dashed hopes for more market-friendly policies.
Strong quarterly earnings results from some of the nation’s biggest tech companies, the loosening of some of Beijing’s strict virus approach and a rescue package for the property sector has driven a reversal of bearish bets and lured investors back to the market after the selloff last month.
While the timeline of reopening remains highly uncertain, authorities have been taking incremental but clear steps toward winding down Covid restrictions. On Tuesday, markets rallied as the top health body said it will bolster vaccinations among senior citizens, while warning against any excessive control measures.
China is now mulling rolling out a fourth Covid shot, according to a report based on people familiar. Guangzhou, a southern manufacturing hub, lifted lockdowns in most parts of the city and replaced those with targeted restrictions. While the city home to Apple Inc.’s largest manufacturing site in China, Zhengzhou, also lifted a lockdown of its main urban areas put in place five days ago.
The shift has spurred hopes that China is laying the grounds for an eventual Covid Zero exit, prompting traders to place bets even as a spike in infections and nationwide protests suggest the path to reopening will be rocky.
Even after this rally, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index is 27% lower this year, with some bumpy rides and more volatility expected.

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