Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Recent rains in South Africa will improve grazing veld and winter crops
South Africa has experienced two months of extremely dry and hot weather — February and March. The impact of harsh weather conditions on agriculture across the country is visible through crop failures. The 2023/24 summer grain and oilseed production is down 21% year-on-year, estimated at 15.8 million tonnes. We are…
SA red meat and wool exports are recovering
The past two years presented major challenges for the South African livestock industry. The spread of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) and higher feed costs were the two major factors that weighed on their business. As farmers, various feedlots, and the government worked to control the spread of the FMD, the…
SA starts its winter crop season with some uncertainty about the weather outlook
This month, we will have farmers in the Western Cape likely begin to prepare the soil for the 2024/25 winter crop production season by the end of April into May. Other major winter crop-producing provinces, such as Free State, Limpopo and the Northern Cape, will likely start around the end…
South Africa’s summer crop production prospects remain bleak
Since the release of the previous report of South Africa's Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) at the end of February 2024, the weather conditions across the country have remained unfavourable. Thus, we are not surprised that the CEC further lowered its production forecasts for South Africa's summer grain and oilseeds this…
The global grain and oilseeds supplies remain plentiful, but the drought in South Africa will still hurt
While the summer grain and oilseeds production prospects for the 2023/24 season seem bleak in Southern Africa because of the excessive dryness and heatwave, the global production conditions remain reasonably optimistic. On March 14, the International Grains Council (IGC) released its monthly update of the 2023/24 global grain and oilseeds…
South Africa’s food inflation risks amid the drought
The damaging effects of persistent dryness and heatwave in South Africa's summer crop-growing regions have raised concerns about a possible rise in consumer food inflation in the coming months. With South Africa's food price inflation averaging 11% in 2023 (from 9.5% in 2022, 6.5% in 2021, and 4.8% in 2020),…
Southern Africa’s agriculture is struggling with persistent dryness and extreme heatwave
South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe have recently published reports indicating a potential decline in grain harvest because of intense El Niño-induced dryness. These developments could put the entire Southern African maize supply chain at risk, with Zambia and South Africa hard hit by heatwaves and dryness. The neighbouring small producers…
SA agricultural exports reach a record US$13.2 billion
Despite all the challenges at the ports and various export markets, the South African agricultural sector has continued to realize excellent export activity. Total agricultural exports reached a new record of US$13.2 billion in 2023, up 3% from the previous year. This is stronger than our earlier expectations of a…
SA farm jobs up 7% year-on-year
Wandile Sihlobo unpacks the latest agriculture trends and statistics in this podcast. After a notable jump in the third quarter of 2023 to 956,000, South Africa's primary agricultural employment fell by 4% quarter-on-quarter to 920,000 in the last quarter of 2023. Jobs declined mainly in the Eastern Cape, Western Cape,…
Excessive heat across SA summer crop regions is worrying
The excessive heat across South Africa currently is a significant concern for the farming sector. The 2023/24 summer crop season started on favourable footing. We received widespread rains, which was unusual in an El Niño season, which would typically start with drier weather conditions. According to data from the Crop…
Weak agricultural machinery sales
We start the year with reasonably weak agricultural machinery sales data. South Africa's tractor sales were down 26% y/y in January 2024, with 353 units sold. At the same time, the combine harvesters were down 50% y/y, with eight units sold. At face value, this could be viewed as a…
A promising summer grain outlook
South Africa could have yet another decent summer grains and oilseeds harvest in the 2023/24 production season. The data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee puts the preliminary area plantings for summer grains and oilseeds at 4,41 million hectares, up by 0,4% y/y (albeit down mildly from 4,48…
SA to export beef to Saudi Arabia
One positive bit of news I noticed this past week is about South Africa's beef industry, with an encouraging headline stating, "Saudi Arabia to start South African meat imports as ban ends". This means everything is now in order for Saudi Arabia to import beef from South Africa. The Kingdom…
South Africa’s 2023 agricultural machinery sales were mixed
South Africa’s filed crop harvest was excellent in 2022/23 season. For example, the 2022/23 maize harvest amounted to 16,4 million, which is 6% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest and the second-largest harvest on record. Soybean harvest is at a record 2,8 million tonnes. South Africa's sugar cane crop was…
SA has a decent winter crop harvest
South Africa's 2023/24 winter crop season has turned out better than some feared. The data released at the end of December 2023 by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) painted a positive picture of South Africa's winter crop harvest. In its fifth production estimate for the 2023/24 season, the CEC kept…
SA agricultural outlook for 2024
One can categorise the start of this year as positive for South Africa’s agriculture. I recently drove across the country from Pretoria to the Wild Coast, which was an opportunity to assess South Africa's agricultural conditions after the first few months of the summer season. The vegetation was welcoming and…
Key challenges that constrained SA's agricultural fortunes in 2023
As the year draws to a close, it is worth reflecting on critical events that dominated the South African agricultural scene this year. There is three in particular that stood out. First, the intense and persistent load-shedding right from the start of the year was a significant challenge for South…
SA agricultural exports were robust in Q3, 2023
South Africa's agricultural exports amounted to US$3.9 billion in the third quarter of this year, up by 4% y/y (according to data from Trade Map). This quarter, the products that dominated the export list were citrus, maize, apples and pears, nuts, wine, soybeans, sugar, and fruit juices. This solid export…
Winter crops in South Africa
The data released this past week by the Crop Estimates Committee continue to paint a reasonably positive picture of South Africa's winter crop harvest, albeit with minor downward monthly revisions of the crop size. The primary issue on farmers' minds is perhaps not crop size but the deterioration in quality…
Food prices in South Africa
Food inflation has been topical over the past few months, and South Africa saw double-digit levels from mid-2022 to mid-2023. This was not unique to South Africa but a global phenomenon underpinned by various factors, including drought in South America, China's strong demand for grains and oilseed, higher energy prices,…