South Africa trails emerging-market peers as Ramaphosa faces calls to resign

Five years ago, Cyril Ramaphosa’s ascent to power fuelled a euphoric rally in South Africa’s assets that coined a new word: Ramaphoria. On Thursday, a financial scandal threatened to end it all in a rout.
The nation’s currency posted its worst one-day loss since May while the government’s borrowing costs surged the most since 2015, as the president considers resigning over potential breaches of the constitution related to the theft of $580,000 stashed at a game farm he owns. Options traders bet on the wildest currency volatility in two years, and the cost to hedge against a sovereign default jumped the most in the same period.
The reversal marks a stark contrast to the market reaction between November 2017 and February 2018 when Ramaphosa emerged as the replacement for the scandal-ridden tenure of Jacob Zuma. His reform agenda and clean image helped fuel a 27% rally in the rand in that period.
Money managers now say he failed to deliver the policy changes required to ignite growth in the country, considered a bellwether for emerging markets. Rampant unemployment at about 33% and a continued mess in the electricity sector have lowered markets’ confidence in him, with the latest political crisis pushing them over the edge.
“The market dreads political instability and often prefers to go with the devil they know than the devil they don’t,” said Cristian Maggio, the head of portfolio and ESG Strategy at TD Securities in London. “But Ramaphosa’s reform agenda has been underwhelming to say the least. Doubts will remain as to whether another candidate can kick-start that process, but we surely know that Ramaphosa is unlikely to deliver what is needed.”
The leadership crisis sent the rand as much as 4.2% lower to 17.9596 per dollar, at one point set for the biggest one-day loss since November 2016. The currency trimmed some of those losses to end the session down 2.6% to a three-week low at 17.6574.
The rand held losses as government spokesman Vincent Mgwenya said in a televised briefing a response by the president is “imminent” without giving timing details for the address.
Some more market reaction:
The 10-year sovereign rand-bond yield rose 74 basis points to 11.54%.
The yield on 10-year dollar bonds climbed about 36 basis points to 7.36%.
One-week implied volatility on the currency, based on options prices, soared 5 percentage points to more than 21%.
Credit default swaps, used to hedge against the risk of default by South Africa in ...