Investec Investec Focus Radio SA

No Ordinary Wednesday | Mini-Budget 2026: More revenue, less borrowing?

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Stronger revenue offers an opportunity to reduce borrowing. Will spending pressures limit the gains?
Ahead of the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), Investec’s Annabel Bishop and Tertia Jacobs to examine the choices facing National Treasury.
Higher precious metals prices offer the prospect of better-than-budgeted tax revenue. But weaker growth, inflation pressure and higher borrowing costs complicate the outlook. How Treasury uses any additional revenue will matter for debt sustainability and investor confidence.
In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, our economists discuss spending discipline, the proposed fiscal anchor and why rising bond yields do not necessarily signal weaker confidence in South Africa.
Chapters
  • 01:20 Higher growth risks and borrowing costs squeeze Treasury
  • 04:49 El Niño and oil shocks threaten SA growth
  • 07:04 Precious metals boost tax revenue, but can it last?
  • 08:12 How much of the revenue boost can Treasury bank on?
  • 09:15 Spending pressures threaten SA’s fiscal gains
  • 11:17 Sustainable revenue is key to reducing debt
  • 12:56 Fiscal credibility supports SA bond market confidence
  • 14:40 Global bond sell-off pushes SA yields higher
  • 16:07 Global bond sell-off pushes SA yields higher
  • 17:46 Fiscal anchor: balancing discipline with flexibility
  • 21:07 What rating agencies need to see beyond commodity gains
  • 22:15 Fiscal credibility depends on delivery, not projections
  • 23:26 Weaker growth risks higher taxes and investor confidence
11 Oct English South Africa Business · Investing

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