Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
SA expects ample summer grains and oilseeds harvest
The Crop Estimates Committee's data reaffirmed our optimism about South Africa's 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production season. Maize production is estimated at 15,9 million tonnes, up mildly from last month's estimate and 3% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest. The current harvest is the third-largest harvest on record. The…
Challenges facing the SA livestock industry
South Africa's livestock industry has faced numerous challenges over the past few years. One of these was the rise in feed prices since 2020, especially for maize and soybeans. The rise in animal feed prices coincided with a worsening in consumers financial strain due to the damaging effects of the…
Why April is a critical month for SA agriculture
April is an important month in South Africa's agricultural sector, especially for field crops. Later this month, farmers in the Western and Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo and other winter crop growing regions will start preparing the land for 2023/24 winter wheat, canola, barley and oats production. For now, it…
Africa is an important market for SA agriculture
Although I continue to argue that South Africa should expand its agricultural export markets to new frontiers such as India, China, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea, amongst others, the export drive should not be at the expense of the existing markets. We should actively engage with existing markets to…
One of SA's great agricultural seasons
Ample grains and oilseeds harvest in SA We have now received additional comforting information that the erratic weather conditions at the start of the 2022/23 summer production season had minimal impact on South Africa’s summer grains and oilseeds. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee las week places South…
Sentiments in SA agriculture
This week we discuss sentiments in SA agriculture and agribusiness. This is an important matter because it influences the long-term investment path and growth of the sector. The sentiments in agriculture are measured through the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI). In its recent reading, after a 4-point decline in Q4…
How South Africa may leverage the BRICS chair for agribusiness
Despite BRICS not being a trade bloc, its economic cooperation arrangement offers South Africa a strategic platform to advance its trade interests. The agricultural sector is interested in this grouping, mainly in advancing exports into China and India. These countries already import a sizable volume and value of agricultural products…
A conversation with Eugene Willemsen of PepsiCo
This past week I sat down with Eugene Willemsen. Eugen is the Chief Executive Officer for Africa, Middle East and South Asia (AMESA) at PepsiCo. With a rich career spanning over 27 years in PepsiCo, Eugene has risen through the ranks to steer the AMESA region valued at $6.1B in…
Positive outlook for SA summer crops
The start of South Africa's 2022/23 summer crop production season was challenging for farmers and agricultural role players because of excessive rains. Crop planting in various regions of the country was delayed by roughly a month, threatening yield prospects. But the warm weather at the end of January and much…
Policies ripe for implementation in SA agriculture
There is so much in the implementation pipeline of South Africa’s agriculture policy this year. The past four years have largely seen various initiatives that sought to inject confidence in the sector. These are now ripe for implementation, especially ahead of the 2024 general elections. A major development in recent…
Solid exports in SA agriculture
Despite various headwinds throughout the year, South Africa's agriculture exports for 2022 did not decline as much as some feared. Data for the first eleven months of the year show exports at a cumulative US$11,9 billion, up by 3% from the same period in 2021. Moreover, US$11,9 billion is the…
With Dr. Johnny van der Merwe on grains
I was on a call with Dr Johnny can der Merwe, an agricultural economist at North West University discussing the grain markets, and we decided to record the chart and release the audio here. Broadly, we are both optimistic about South Africa’s 2022/23 grain and oilseed production conditions, and see…
SA maize and wine outlook
The latest harvest news in wine grapes and maize paints a mixed outlook for these two subsectors. In this week’s podcast, we explore the production conditions in these separate subsectors, and the outlook for the harvest. First, South Africa’s wine grapes for this year are projected to be lower than…
El Nino on the horizon
As the deepening energy crisis continues to present problems for different parts of the agricultural sector, another major challenge that could confront South Africa's agricultural sector in a few months is a change in weather conditions from favourable rains to drier and hot conditions. This would be a switch from…
Energy crisis now a food security risk
There is probably no issue more urgent than the worsening energy crisis for South Africa's agriculture and agribusinesses. Farmers who rely on irrigation have all expressed concerns that persistent loadshedding negatively affects production. In crucial field crops, roughly 20% of maize, 15% of soybean, 34% of sugarcane and nearly half…
Crumbling basic infrastructure limits agriculture and tourism
The interlinked problems of poverty, unemployment and weak economic activity continue to plague rural towns and communities in SA. However, the two industries that could help ease some of these challenges — agriculture and tourism — face various constraints that limit their growth potential. Beyond the big topics of ambiguous…
The State of SA Countryside
My annual December drive from Pretoria to the Wild Coast in the Eastern Cape always allows me to assess South Africa's agricultural conditions after the first few months of the summer season. Whether one enjoys this trip largely depends on weather conditions. In drought seasons like in 2015, this could…
Key trends in SA agriculture in 2023
Happy new year folks, South Africa's agriculture will likely have a downbeat start into 2023. The gross agricultural value added for 2022, which will be released in March, will probably show a mild contraction. This would be a notable shift from two consecutive years of solid growth, with the sector…
Jobs in SA agriculture
In this week’s segment, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo reflects on South Africa’s agricultural jobs data for the third quarter of 2022. Although South Africa's agricultural sector faced numerous challenges in the 2021/22 production season – from tough production conditions in grains and oilseeds, disease outbreaks in livestock, and trade barriers…
SA tractor sales decline in November 2022
In this week’s segment, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo reflects on South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales. After registering positive growth since May 2020, South Africa’s tractor sales fell by 5% year-on-year in November 2022, with 704 units sold. Still, the current sales are well above the long-term monthly average of 565…